My thoughts dump

Amit is investing will be successful because: he says after making a lot of money in hood and pltr now he wants to add another stock i.e. amzn to dip buying strategy because it hasn't moved much this year and is probably safe to bet on mag7 and rotate some profits into it.

He is not doing anything special; he is not trying to prove to his own insecurity inside that he is smart by counter trade trending. He did very basic dip buying and now he is making a safe move. He is not that smart and thats why he will make it in stock market.

Even after trading for a very long time: some people still make the same mistakes they would do as a beginner. this is what hari seldon said.

From the experience of trying to tweak the normalized relative strength indicator and normalized relative strength momentum indicator I realized following:

Certain entry and exit rules work better for certain stocks and for certain time frames. For example: TSLA on 5 min time frame. Although profit factor is low, due to sheer number of trades, total profit percentage could be high.
4 hr charts include premarket, so they are slightly better than day chart for testing strategies
I looked into YouTube for premium indicators: and there could be some indicator which has 60-80% win rate and more than 2 profit factor. But question is will it work in the long term for every stock? For every time line? Will you really put your money into this algo and spend years around it?
The biggest problem is chop. I.e. When moving averages are close by or stock is moving side ways or Bollinger bands are thin or stock does a fake break out of such range. In such stages, even my 20- NRSI indicator (20 day look back) will do a lot of crossovers over 0.2 from below or 9-NRSI will do lot of crossovers around 0.8 from below. I.e. Basically choppy signals for my entry and exit.
I was reading on Reddit when someone asked it using 7 and 200 sma on a smaller time frame will be a good automated strategy with good win rate etc, and people commented these are lagging indicators and you will alwYs fall into trouble at chop zones.
Things always circle back to matt and how good he is.

Okay so my conclusion as of now is that I can use HA candles in a separate chart in the same time frame as an indicator. Because these are basically averaging candles, they are apparently good at averaging out the noise and finding changes in trend. That is why my indicator and also apparently other basic integrators give really good profit factor and winning rate when users put ha candles. But the issue is back calculated, as we need the closing price of the original candle.

People say to use ha candles only on time frames higher than 1 hour and it's not recommended to use on lower time frames.

I also read that, trading view is not good for back calculating strategies. It's only good for YouTube videos. Because even if we create a successful strategy, the actual implementation has lot of hiccups due to the slippage from broker, commission fees etc.

Good news is my strategy does Great with high profit Factor when I use ha candles.

I can also use my strategy on regular candles but just as an indicator for entry and exit. I currently also included the PVT indicator into the entry that is only when it is green entry happens. I guess I can look into this on the daily chart, look into overall support and resistance levels, look into commentary by matt, etc then decide the entry. I could also parallely look the same on HA candle chart. I need to use "judgement', " understand market conditions" , and trade management i.e. ruthlessly cut stop losses.

General market knowledge The most dangerous period to be is when market is neutral or chopping. This is where people will lose all the money they have made until then. It's very difficult for a strong bull trend to turn to Bear immediately.. it usually has to go through a chop. Or multiple chop periods.

THe HA candles on daily chart and my latest strategy are giving mind blowing results.

People apparently use regular candles for entry and keep following trend using HA candles as it keeps emotions in check and for exit. People say they don't recommend it for scalping in very short time intervals. The pefect example of this is look at my TSLA dec 05 2024 trade. I panicked and exited on a doji within 3 days on regular candles but HA candles showed bullish for few more days (no lower shadows) and i could have exited much later. I would have made a killing with that trade but i didnt.

https://youtu.be/Ci1hKIHL9VY?si=V9lyiLfYF7MUPtv6

I’ve used Heiken Ashi and smoothed Heiken ashi overlay for swing trading TQQQ and QLD on daily candles.

TSLA does very well with 15 min chart and regular candles with spy

for certain tickers which are volatile like VST tuning parameters help. super long term look back: 100 long term lookback: 40 medium term look back: 10 short term : 3

Try different trend filter types, stop loss types and anchor indexes like NVDA instead of SPY or even QQQ

First try to get best %return on regular candles and then move to HA for extra boost

AEHR systems. Looks very volatile. so what worked is shorter modified settings like above (short term horizons and a 20h candle. basically smoothing things out similar to HA candles)

The best way to trade a stock at lower time frames like 5 and 15 with options is first to tune my strategy on it with various parameters to and time window, exit rules, entry rules, SpY or NVDA, etc to get best returns. Then I can use the best version of hyperparameters for that stock and my strategy.

The deep and extensive trading work flow: Media: Twitter and seeing "following" section, amitisinvesting, realdaytrading, oneoption Yahoo finance news youtube: geeksforgeeks, fxevoluiton, tradernick, clickcapital and other live/everyday shows, amitisinvesting daily wrap up, matt's video, verified investing Studying charts Scanning for stocks on tradingview and also zenbot

Now i understand why cutting early is important. Its always easy to re enter a trade if your timing of entry was wrong. Especially when you trade DTL compression moves, which could go either way.

Improve my strategy: Add multi time frame ema conditions (for eg: on daily chart should: EMA 50 > 200)

Read more about HA candles on reddit

HA candles on reguar+extended chart will show a gap or down as one big candle as they average out with previous candle. this is not good. so use only extended hours chart not regular chart if you want to use HA. I guess same thing happens with HA candlles even on daily charts as they dont know gap ups.

I was incredibly unlucky I think. I just started by investment/trading journey in September/October of 2024 and with 6 months there was such a crash so fast that it was within few days of turning into official bear market. Spy and qqq were down more than 25-30%.

Always think in terms of probability like gareth does. every outcome, setup, move, trend, support and or resistance break, will only make it most likely to happen and that is 80%. There is no 100% in trading. max is 80%. 2-3 support zones, creating a strong S or R will make it 80% but not 100%. Perhaps this kind of philosophy also helps in life

Workflow for entry on daily chart:

PVT green (sometimes could be optional)
3 time frames of NRSI good
NRMSI (momentum) above 50
BBT black line above zero and in general looks good
No divergence on RSI indicator
check HA candles: If they show doji on previous day then its dangerous (Use HA candles also as a confluence indicator)
My indicator is/was just flagging entry
Check my : price action: trends, gaps, reversal indicator (1-2-3-4-5 spectre style) : 1- trend continuation; 2- gap up and go (strong trend) 3. min reversal (pullback) i.e. open within range but close below.. 4. gap up and reversal (trap) 5. inside candle It shouldn't have too many mixture of gap ups, downs, etc.. ( i.e. like 2, 3,4 etc) it can have inside candles (5s) but not a ping pong. Also look into gaps which are filled and not filled historically going back several weeks if needed .
For downtrend line compression trades, see going back several weeks if there is any nasty big red candle ie.e. big 3 candle or 4 candle. (this indicator is also color coded). Use it alone first by hiding all other overlapping indicators like NRMSI and NRSI. For example for a stock drying to break out of DTL and above 20 daysma see if going long back there is some nasty red 3 candle. This will dominate the chart unless untill broken.
Keep logic conistent. Any gap ups or gap downs or nasty 3 or 4 candles which are dominating which act like anchors and that particular trend will stay intact unitll otherwise proven wrong. for eg: a stock could up and that old long back 3 candle can act like resistance for a pull back.
Also have a look at CVD indicator to see how volume is in addition to my PVT, BBT indicators
On the weekly chart: look at bollinger bands. And also do price action analysis. See how much % has the stock already run. Did it already run 50% and i am catching the top? am i trying to tell myself i will be quickly in and out as stock will do a double top? don't do this..
Also the 3^rd NRSI (50 lookback and 20 signal line) is a very good indicator in itself for entry and exit. combine that also with my other analysis. This is a good position trade style indicator

I think i am getting very good at narrating a story of stock movement keeping in my mind in my background that i essentially need to piggy back institutional traders using all above indicators.

I think my above knowledge combined with matt's wisdom of reading markets, understanding fundamentals of a stock (analyst ratings average price), then big market picture etc... should be very good confluence of factors to swing or position trade a stock

Think like this: always assume first you are gonna position trade a stock. if not then swing trande. if not then options for very short term.. that should be the heirarchy..

lets say i missed an ideal entry for a stock at DTL or zanger U point or at pivot break. How do i know if its still okay to enter after a quick pullback to 9 or 20 day sma?

In addition to answering above i found another great logic: Ideally a strong momentum strong should not hit 0 NRSI on 9 lookback. Even if it hits it should quickly go back up. Also looking to my price action: trends, gaps, reversal indicator (1-2-3-4-5 spectre style) see if a nasty red candle on a stock ie. 3 or 4 number has brought down NRSI down to zero or sometimes from 1.0 to 0.5 or below. Also check SPY on that day. If that nasty RED candle came on a SPY up or side ways day then its time to exit the stock. ( see RKLB 020122024)

Study the historical bursts of a stock: like how many days it will burst up and how many days it will take rest. This is to get an idea of the cyclical nature of that stock.

Monthly charts of IWM, SPY are fantastic along with all my indicators to study if we topped the market and will start a bear market.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealDayTrading/s/a22ftK4TLo

Study the obv and relative volume indicators. They sound interesting to understand DTL breakouts.

One more thing what i realized is that: I usually miss the correct entries and later chase wrong stock or sector thinking market ripped and these didn’t rip so i have chance for good alpha. Because when market rips it rips so fast and within few days or 2 weeks everything will be too much up. Combine this with my non existent trade management is why i am losing. This is similar to fantasy. I miss buying a player prices rise and i end up compromising and getting some other lame player to fit the squad. So just like at work to impress bosses speed matters more than perfection. I need to quickly enter trades when markets are ripping instead of waiting or procrastinating. You remember the quote? People who make money in the markets are fast, smart (trade management) or cheat.

also on doji candle if there is no top shadow then it could be reversal on uptrend. watch the doji candle reading videos properly

Remove the wait for 2 candles of 9 NRSI rule from code for 5 min scalping using my indicator Also put 20 sma on my indicator so that i can remove the sma indicator i usually use

Understand one thing. Randomly being close to 9 or 20 and coming from underneath is not trading some pull back on underlying strong stock. sometimes stock could be chopping since a while and since all moving averages are so close, it may feel like a pop above 9 is powerful (intra day) but it may not be. probablity of success would be definitely lower than 80%

Read about reading RSI: ben of verified investing had an interesting comment that having too low RSI under say 30-40 entire day on a stock getting hammered also sometimes acts like a rubber band and may push up for small 3-4% push-ups.

Matt is also partially to be blamed here. I understand his logic for setup and he says its very simple but now with my indicator and above 7 steps i mentioned it makes much more sense what he says. Imagine he gives 2-4 names a day he is looking to enter and i can pick one of them by studying them with my rules for multiple confluences and this pushes prob. of succesful trade to 65-70%.

I am pretty sure it's every major trader or even minor firm has some kind of indicator or confluence of indicators or algo which flashes buy or sell at multiple times frames. All th ese service guys or Matt act like they just stare at charts and take decisions. Perhaps they do but

Classify a move before you make for the environment: rate if its low prob or medium prob or high prob conducive env for that stock. I like matt's analogy of comparing the environment with a black jack table at casino. When env is bad, its similar to casino putting up a board saying today's winning prob is low.

for example if price is below all key moving averages and sma 9,20,50 are below 200 but stock is google. (may 2025) even if its a megacap, it may not breakout strong from this DTL line when moving averages converge and price pops a bit. its a low prob environment, especially for options. you may DCA and wait longer for such environments but not ideal for quick jump back to rising trend because there is no underlying good trend

Now I understand why i didn't use to sell when i was in profits; why i used to feel i am stressed when i am in profits, because i didn't understand the boundary conditions .. i didn't have any indicator to check. I didn't follow the raise stop loss and take partials discipline either. I didn't even knew that you need to sell when stock comes below 20. use 20sma as line in the sand. I was naive about entry and also exit. deep down i guess i knew it was a bit of gambling. I didn't knew the consequence of not cutting early in terms of loss, opportunity cost and also leading to long term bad discipline.

I guess that is why when you start to learn a new skill, its good to just follow the teacher and blindly trust him intially. Although matt was not exactly spoon feeding. This is similar to me learning driving fast and my dad having lost ability to follow rules and blindly trust a teacher couldn't learn to drive. I did the same mistake in trading and lost of ton of money.

first attempt to break above a key ma. prob of first breakout failing is usually high. could also be a fakeout, combine that with low prob env for that particular stock or general market.

although all indicators may look decent with my indicator also showing entry if moving averages are too close it is always a risk and i should follow risk management. (look at my DOCU entry on jan 31 2025). I should follow very strict risk management. because stock can easily come below the 20sma with a half decent move and bam all algos trigger sell in all institutions etc.

Tradingedge guy is really good at picking stock names. i made good money by entering his stocks like hood and telling myself to stay long like position trade. I should probably subscribe back to him after a few months.

Sometimes i was telling myself that stock will run upto earnings. I tend to do this, where i tell myself "something" would happen and go all-in with 100% certainty. I lack the probability thinking of an event happening, which gareth soloway is very good at drilling into my head.

Now i understand why matt say exit on 9 day sharply is not required sometimes on a stock that has been running like his GEV trade. he gives it more freedom to sometimes comedown a bit below 9 even for swing trade. This is how he makes outsized returns.

hari seldon says dave wyse is the best trader in the country he knows, much better than himself and pete.

wyse has interested setup. He says he has current timeframe momentum and multi timeframe momentum (1 day and 15 min combination). he sees if higher one is already bullish. then waits for current one to turn bullish from existing bearish and then enters. exit is on HA doji candle. Also be aware of any existing resistance levels like vwap, 15 ema on 5min chart and other obvious S&R levels He also has another indicator which calcuates RS wrt SPY or QQQ or whatever index that ticker follows. His main logic is that when momentum is high it implies institutions are buying it. and his idea is that institutions make a buy and then just sit quiet for retail to buy little bit by little bit. His idea is to best find these moments where retail step in and buy. this is similar to FVG in luxg algo? maybe maybenot.

I have put x mark on my script for which candle: both 20 and 9 NRSI are above 0.95. This perhaps in conjuction with other signals, S&R levels could be used to increase prob of entry ( or exit?). another confluence is to use PVT and BBT ( black line above zero for eg; to see if volume agrees with PVT or bull or bear control agrees with the x mark. This will make sure that the following days could also be x days and start of a DTL break or pivot break. Even this x mark on a candle without much volume on that day is not a high prob, continuation sign. But would be interesing to see the 5 min chart next day.

and X mark on a stock on a given day basically means it had RS on that day. next day it may not have. this will be like a sudden spike and dip on NRSI plots. but if next day breaks the current day candle close or wick then could be an interesting followthrough trade on next day.

For 5 min chart: see on daily chart if previous day was X. this will add to prob, but doesnt guarantee anything.

I can use X on daily chart for entry and doji on daily chart iwth HA for exit. I can do the same as above for 5 min chart.

Like Dave does with multi time frame momentum, what I can do I put another colored x mark or some other mark on a stick if it's showing more than 0.95 NRSI on 9,20 look back ok weekly chart. This will give more confluence for an x mark on daily chart candle. It's all about time frames and confluences.

Improve my indicator by using John EHLERS' Laguerre Filter and its concepts.

Pete uses 90 and 10 levels on regular RSI. not 70 and 30 or 80 and 20. Laguerre RSI: Pete credits dave for it. He recommends using 0.7 gamma and reading above 80. He says: safest entry is when LSRI crosses 0.8 from below and you exit it crosses below 0.8 but dip buying is: you enter when it crosses 0.2 above from below and hold it until it goes above 0.8 and dips below again 0.8. Sometimes when you enter at 0.2, LSRI may keep going up but price could come back or make lower low etc, so its not perfect indicator to use by itself. obviously, you need to use it in confluence with other indicators

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDn37rK5C0s&t=2s

Dave is selling high win rate with his system. We don't know what his true win rate over a long period of time is. in his video he shows over few weeks. we dont know how is system works on any chart, say NVDA on 5 min basis tested for years.

You cannot make money in trading by beating the institutional investors. We can only beat and steal money from other retail investors. (David wyse).

Key market intuitions: Stacked candles at the opening implies urgency and strength in buying Closing a recent gap up after a few days or moments of run up is a good thing as it's ready for a bigger run (happened with my VRT options trade in Oct 2025) From failed moves comes fast moves: if repeated attempts to break down fail then srock will rocket up..and if repeated attempts to break a pivot fail then srock will rapidly come down..

1-2-3 spectre style candle indicator make a script do slilding window analysis of 1-2-3 frequency : write a script Include 1-2-3 into my strategy

CVD, VWAP, Herst exponent : Look into other indicators which tej used and add them to my indicator. This time use deepthink not just regular 2.5 pro.

Deepresearch idea: use my ideas and pince script to into similar indicators online. and also ask gemini deepresearch how can i improve further

"Believe your eyes"

" People lost more timing tops than in actual bear market"

Rhichard moglen uses something called relative measured volatility.. and also has a relative strength indicator (i think its close to my 50 NRSI with 20 day signal line ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlRunaELLLs

Michael burry video: he say media calculates his 100 stocks from one option and multiples with current actual stock price and says short position is 1 billion.idiots, they should multiply with option price not stock price. Anyways he says he bought PLTR 50 strike 2 year LEAP puts when PLTR was near 190-200. For 2 dollars and 10 million dollars of total cost. I thought it was interesting to see how he is buying long dates far OTM puts. Perhaps such things are inefficiently priced by the black-scholes equation or options pricing. Then i did a little research on it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiZtR76idR8

Trade idea: When matt says he is going into position trade at DTL; then perhaps its a good time to buy long dated LEAPS and far OTM at super cheap price.

https://steadyoptions.com/articles/buying-deep-out-of-the-money-dotm-options-r389/ http://operators.macro-ops.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/The-Macro-Ops-DOTM-Guide-V1.pdf

Above articles give examples how when stocks broke their long term bases and ran 70-100% 6-8 months far OTM calls went up like 1000%.